Actually I haven't watched ALL the movies nominated for the main sections. An illustrious absence is "War Horse", that got stranded somewhere and I wasn't able to watch it as I would have liked, since it was one of those that most interested me. Also, yes, I watched only those that attracted me, and I would have watched "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" and "My Week with Marilyn" if I had discovered sooner what they were about. Oh well, I have a feeling that these three won't be among the top runners.
So, here are my thoughts and predictions about what I've seen:
BEST PIC:
The Help: A likely winner in many categories. I loved "Tinker Tailor" too, which wasn't nominated (and I can understand why, I may write a specific post later), but "The Help" is a really fine movie.
Hugo: A solid contender. I liked it despite seeing it in 3D which I find pretty but distracting. I love movies about movies (see Inglorious Basterds) and movies with a historical theme. Also, Scorsese can't do much wrong.
Midnight in Paris: Sorry Woody, I dislike movies with a POINT, that drive the POINT in your brain, despite the unbelievably grotesquely hateful 21th century people, while the past was of course lovely, if you get the POINT. Even the moral at the end - nobody likes their own times - did not save the 21th century and the USA in particular from getting an especially negative treatment. Best scene: Adrien Brody as Dalì. I was in tears of laughter.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
I've seen only Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) and I bet on Gary Oldman. He's long overdue for an Oscar and he was frighteningly intense as Smiley, wisely going for a wholly different approach from Sir Alec Guinness' historical interpretation. Best scene: Smiley describes his meeting with Karla and loses touch with reality.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
As much as I was curious about seeing Kenneth Branagh finally playing his idol Sir Laurence Olivier, I'm all for Christopher Plummer. "Beginners" is the most depressing movie I've seen in a long time, despite being a celebration of life and love, but Chris (who lost 2 years ago to the utterly deserving Christoph Waltz) is terrific, and he's even more overdue for an Oscar than Gary!
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs": Scary, lovely, a victim in a world of female victims (I might have some more to say about this one too), much more effective in my view than...
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady": I wanted to like it, there were some gems (Viserys Targaryen as young Dennis Thatcher!), but I found it overacted, and unbalanced in the fantasy depiction of Maggie's hallucinating mind.
Viola Davis, "The Help": I loved all the ladies of this movie, even the bad ones (trapped in their narrow minds, as the book says) and I have a feeling it might be a sweep. Hard for me to choose between Glenn and Viola, both portraying defiant outcasts.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jessica Chastain, "The Help": I adored her character of the misleadingly vacuous Celia, and it's a tough battle with...
Octavia Spencer, "The Help": another tough lady who stole the show!
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs": I loved her
DIRECTING
Between "Hugo" (Martin Scorsese) and "Midnight in Paris" (Woody Allen) I personally have no doubt, but not having seen the other candidates I might have some surprises.
Let the games begin (sort of)...